Michigan State -4.5 (Indiana @ Mich St)

My models are all pretty tight with MSU at 38-43 pts and with 450+ yards total offense, I can't disagree (including a 1.4 ypa advantage in the air). Indiana is an improving team, but don't see them being able to keep pace here in a game they don't really have any statistical angle to exploit. 315-350 yards and 23-27 points won't get it done. MSU is a Free Selection

ULM -7 (ULM @ N Tx)

ULM rolls up near 300 on the ground and another 200 in the air, including 6.4 ypr and wins this going away. N Tx would look to exploit a somewhat suspect ULM rush D (-0.8 ypr) but is in fact worse themselves rushing the football (-1.1 ypr), and isn't really any better passing the football. I project 120 on the ground, and while they will have some success in the air it won't be enough to keep up. ULM 35 N. Texas 20 ULM is a Free Selections