UVA @ MTSU (+10)

UVA's HC Groh is 12-22 in all road games at UVA (ATS) and 1-9 on the road after a win of 17+ (0-7 when 21+); add to that UVA is 4-14 on the road after 2 ATS wins in the last 15 years (4-15 on the road after covering three of their last 4) and things appear to be set up for a closer than expected contest.

UVA has a slight advantage running the football but has as equal a disadvantage passing the football, which is a good sign for a home underdog…a double digit favorite on the road who can't pass but can run isn't likely to blow the doors off the home dog, keeping them in the game, which isn't what you want as a big favorite on the road.

My projections call for UVA to ave b/w 4.1-4.3 ypr & about 6.0 ypa for b/w 340-380 yards offense (4.8 – 5.3 yppl). MTSU matches up ok with UVA and while neither side has any overwhelming advantage, MTSU should have decent success moving the football. My projections call for 3.2 ypr and 7.5 ypa for about 309-325 yards offense (4.8 – 5.1 ypa). So does a offensive advantage of 31-65 yards offense for UVA equitably equate to 10 points on the road? No, our models are all pretty closeted around UVA in the 20-26 range and MTSU in the 19-23 range, which seems fair given the projected offense.

UVA 24 MTSU 20. MTSU is a Free Selections at +10