BYU @ UCLA (-7)

I wrote in here last week that I didn't like going against a UCLA team which I think it one of the best in the PAC 10REST, and I'll repeat it here again. Still it looks this week like they are in another unfavorable match up, as they host a BYU team which worked Arizona last week, holding their offense to 32 yards rushing and 4.5 yppl total. That is the same Arizona team that returned their oft injured QB Tuitama and who played the entire game (that same QB when healthy last season (only played about half the season last year because of numerous injuries) posted upset wins vs/ #25 Wash St, #8 Cal, and bowl team Oregon).

This same BYU defense, returning 7 of 9 with significant playing time on a DL who held opponents to 3.6 ypr last season will be tested by a UCLA offense, much improved, returning 10 starters, and fresh off a convincing victory over Stanford in which they racked up 600+ total yards (338 on ground)…there's your story…UCLA's rushing attack vs BYU's front 7. UCLA had 50 rushing attempts last week, and definitely looks to run 1st under head coach Karl Dorrell (they averaged 34 attempts last season) and should have some success, but not near the success as last week, and I project about 350 total yards of offense, with some good success on the ground (about 4.7 ypr).

UCLA's defense has some holes, although not against the run. One of my fears last week was a terrible Stanford rushing attack that I figured would average 1.8 ypr, which turned out to be our demise…the good news is I was pretty accurate in that assessment as they averaged 2.0 ypr, once could say then that UCLA is as good as I expect them to be if not slightly worse (0.2 ypr). My projections call for about 3.5 ypr for BYU which should be enough to keep the UCLA defense at bay and allow BYU to exploit a UCLA secondary that has its holes. In fact my projections call for a big day for BYU in the air, averaging 9.3 ypa for 482 total yards, as a 7 point dog and a decent defense that should be enough to keep this game close, if not win outright.

Still UCLA is a good team, and pretty good bet at home, going 8-1 vs the number their last 9 at home, there are a couple other trends and situations favoring both teams which combined with my misassesment of UCLA's offense last week dampens my enthusiasm some, but I'll still call for a close game, one I'd give BYU a 4 in 10 chance of winning outright. BYU 27 UCLA 28